Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F8 0xf85b…5137 sports 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,148 (+5%) realized +$3,147 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate71%129W / 53L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days−$6
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$525
sports 25% +$3,149
politics 12% +$14
world 7% −$9
crypto 6% +$489
finance 5% −$3
economics 4% +$11
culture 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +91.7% +73.4% 50% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +50.1% +35.8% 60% 30% -9.4%
≤90d 54 +13.1% +2.4% 59% 44% -10.1%
all 182 +18.8% +7.5% 71% 54% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 54% -4.9%
10% -2.8% 41% -14.0%
15% -12.2% 33% -22.3%
20% -20.8% 26% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +22% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$51 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized+$3,147
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses129 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)182 / 185
History coverage256d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 No 76¢ 82¢ $42 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 84¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $80 +$520 +650%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $506 −$504 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $119 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3,319 −$7 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $260 +$2 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $28 +$2 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $296 +$4 +1%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $2,600 −$103 -4%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $207 +$3 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PLC win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Re Apr 28 $58 +$11 +19%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 19 $43 +$7 +16%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 19 $55 +$25 +45%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 12 $24 +$16 +64%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 09 $400 +$166 +42%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $30 +$9 +29%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 06 $10 +$6 +60%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $18 +$11 +62%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $275 −$272 -99%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 01 $130 −$130 -100%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $28 +$21 +73%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $104 −$103 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Suns vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5 Mar 31 $5 +$5 +85%
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) Mar 31 $11 +$9 +84%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Mar 31 $11 +$9 +80%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $1,005 +$2 +0%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 30 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $8 +$2 +22%
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) Mar 30 $10 +$9 +92%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $8 +$2 +28%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Mar 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $7 +$3 +52%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 28 $222 +$78 +35%
76ers vs. Hornets Mar 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 28 $2,985 −$3 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Mar 28 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $2,990 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $2,995 −$3 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $2,998 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $3,001 −$3 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $3,007 −$3 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $3,014 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $80 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $506 9h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $120 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $199 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $304 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $27 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $200 12d
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 85¢ $50 12d
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $42 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 79¢ $40 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $260 33d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 43d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 47d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $296 56d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $119 60d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $207 65d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $20 65d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $8 72d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $47 72d
Hornets vs. Knicks BUY Hornets 86¢ $43 72d
Heat vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 61¢ $24 75d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 70¢ $400 76d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 77¢ $30 78d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 62¢ $10 82d
Pacers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 64¢ $275 83d
Kings vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 87¢ $130 83d
Hawks vs. Magic BUY Hawks 61¢ $18 83d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $104 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.72 · official $550.72 (match) · 546 history records