Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf855…428e other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%93W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$17
crypto 14% +$1
politics 7% $0
world 7% −$1
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 21 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 98 -4.1% -13.3% 95% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 1% -10.1%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses93 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage470d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $74 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $73 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14? May 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 25 $72 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 20 $72 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $71 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $71 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026? Mar 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Mar 10 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Feb 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? Feb 27 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Feb 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 9? Feb 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026? Feb 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 19? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 29 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jan 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 12 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 18? Dec 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 31 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 6? Dec 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 06 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $74 5d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $74 9d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 15d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 19d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $73 22d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 31d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $3 34d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 34d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 39d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 43d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 53d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $72 58d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $72 64d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 71d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $56 80d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 84d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 100¢ $2 84d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 84d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 84d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 99d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY No 99¢ $60 110d
Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 110d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 110d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 124d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe BUY No 100¢ $5 124d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 124d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $7 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.19 · official $75.19 (match) · 195 history records