Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf853…a003 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized +$9 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$51
sports 18% −$12
crypto 8% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+68.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +117.3% +96.6% 50% 50% +56.5%
≤30d 12 +117.3% +96.6% 50% 50% +56.5%
≤90d 12 +117.3% +96.6% 50% 50% +56.5%
all 14 +86.3% +68.5% 43% 43% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.5% 43% +1.0%
10% +52.4% 43% -8.6%
15% +37.7% 43% -17.5%
20% +24.2% 36% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +168% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage349d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$12 +226%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 +$11 +549%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$13 +650%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +473%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 +$19 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico Jul 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 47h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 110d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 118d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 118d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 118d
Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico BUY USA 39¢ $20 349d
Gold Cup Final Winner: USA vs. Mexico BUY USA 39¢ $20 349d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.00 · official $183.00 (match) · 145 history records