Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf84d…5e65
weather · 787 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$655 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$671 · open +$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$651
Realized−$671
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses690 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)784 / 787
History coverage104d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 784 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$595
14 days+$693
30 days+$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $310 $316 +$6 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $281 $289 +$8 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 23? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $275 $0 −$275 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 23? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 33°C on May 12? Yes 92¢ 0¢ $471 $0 −$471 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 11? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 30? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 9? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 13? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $191 $0 −$191 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$24 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $586 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $358 +$10 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $201 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $304 +$32 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $201 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 +$27 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $249 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $450 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $458 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $127 +$11 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $421 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $175 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $211 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $186 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $300 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $302 +$47 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$10 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $120 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $223 −$4 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $296 +$27 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $174 +$20 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $257 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 10? Jun 10 $252 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$655
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $80 7m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 96¢ $81 25m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $24 28m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 29m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 31m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $325 32m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 96¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 94¢ $79 39m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 42m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 49m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $104 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $105 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $109 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $72 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $100 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $101 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $368 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $205 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +2.9% -6.9% 92% 13% -5.2%
≤30d 208 +2.0% -7.8% 92% 14% -7.8%
≤90d 609 -0.7% -10.2% 87% 15% -13.0%
all 784 +1.1% -8.5% 88% 14% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 14% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 5% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.99 · official $650.99 (match) · 3500 history records