Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:53:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf84c…73cd crypto 605 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-3%) realized −$145 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%253W / 352L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$48
14 days−$90
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$221
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 34% -15.6%
≤30d 196 -5.9% -14.8% 44% 36% -14.9%
≤90d 605 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 35% -13.2%
all 605 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 35% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 29% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 24% -29.1%
20% -36.9% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses253 / 352
Open positions0
Markets (closed)605 / 605
History coverage61d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 605 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$9 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$20 +245%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$14 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$8 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2054 history records