Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf84b…6455 sports 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$357 (-4%) realized −$504 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%104W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$60
14 days−$110
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$446
crypto 1% −$46
other 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -32.2% -38.7% 24% 20% -29.8%
≤30d 87 -49.5% -54.3% 16% 14% -24.8%
≤90d 443 -30.7% -37.3% 23% 21% -14.5%
all 443 -30.7% -37.3% 23% 21% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.3% 21% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -43.3% 18% -22.7%
15% -48.8% 15% -30.1%
20% -53.8% 12% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$8 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$504
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses104 / 339
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions4
Markets (closed)443 / 447
History coverage76d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 34¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Over 15¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Over $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Toronto Tempo $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Daniel Merida Aguilar $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Washington Mystics $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Darja Vidmanova 12¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Niels Visker $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Charles Broom $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Henri Squire $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Alexander Donski $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Antonia Rivera 27¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Ognjen Milic 14¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Bernard Tomic $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Marc-Andrea Huesler 44¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 69¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Miguel Tobon $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -44%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $24 −$13 -55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $8 −$4 -45%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 14 $23 +$14 +58%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +430%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $45 +$12 +27%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $8 +$13 +160%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $15 −$5 -33%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 09 $25 −$24 -98%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $20 +$45 +223%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 09 $20 −$19 -97%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $15 −$15 -97%
ITF Bistrita: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Stefan Horia Haita Jun 07 $16 −$16 -97%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $15 +$112 +734%
Brazzaville: Lawrence Bataljin vs Mathys Erhard Jun 06 $2 −$2 -88%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Mauthausen: Sandro Kopp vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazzaville: Elijah Sanogo vs Ivan Marrero Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Aix en Provence: Thomas Faurel vs David Goffin Jun 06 $1 +$2 +131%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 06 $12 +$1 +5%
Abidjan 2: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Hamish Stewart Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Zakharova vs Linda Noskova Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Abidjan 2: Massimo Giunta vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Lois Boisson Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Francavilla: Harry Wendelken vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazzaville: Calvin Hemery vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Cagliari: Emilio Nava vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Federico B Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Santos: Luis Guto Miguel vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 2m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 18m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $5 21m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 10¢ $2 37m
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 27¢ $18 44m
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $5 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves SELL Antonia Rivera 36¢ $10 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 18¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels $0 2h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves SELL Chicago Wolves 44¢ $30 2h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Chicago Wolves 23¢ $5 2h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Chicago Wolves 13¢ $5 2h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves SELL Chicago Wolves 20¢ $2 2h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Chicago Wolves 51¢ $10 3h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves SELL Chicago Wolves 43¢ $5 3h
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves BUY Chicago Wolves 25¢ $3 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 11¢ $5 3h
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $4 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 14¢ $6 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds $1 4h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.51 · official $17.00 · 2443 history records