Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf84b…a942 crypto 76 markets active 5d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$33 (-17%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate47%36W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$33
other 5% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 18% -22.3%
≤30d 18 -19.9% -27.5% 50% 17% -22.4%
≤90d 76 -24.0% -31.2% 47% 26% -27.0%
all 76 -24.0% -31.2% 47% 26% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 26% -27.0%
10% -37.8% 12% -34.0%
15% -43.8% 4% -40.3%
20% -49.3% 1% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses36 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage50d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 19 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 19 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 19 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 01 $1 $0 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 30 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 30 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 28 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $1 +$1 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 28 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 27 $3 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 27 $2 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 88¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 276 history records