Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf849…a4e1 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day65.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1
sports 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.9% -5.0% 59% 55% -9.6%
≤30d 22 +4.9% -5.0% 59% 55% -9.6%
≤90d 22 +4.9% -5.0% 59% 55% -9.6%
all 22 +4.9% -5.0% 59% 55% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 55% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 41% -18.2%
15% -22.4% 27% -26.1%
20% -30.0% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$67 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day65.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Karmine Corp 11¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$121 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $306 +$69 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $411 +$61 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $152 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $258 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $169 +$82 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $332 −$213 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $281 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $204 +$124 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $128 +$61 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $33 −$27 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $374 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $77 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $392 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 80 history records