Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf844…50d3
other · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -61%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses2 / 20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 6 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +595%
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 22h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals SELL Yes 3¢ $1 22h
Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 40h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 45h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-62.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -58.7% -62.6% 9% 9% -74.7%
≤30d 22 -58.7% -62.6% 9% 9% -74.7%
≤90d 22 -58.7% -62.6% 9% 9% -74.7%
all 22 -58.7% -62.6% 9% 9% -74.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.6% 9% -74.7%
10% -66.2% 9% -77.1%
15% -69.4% 5% -79.3%
20% -72.4% 5% -81.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.88 · official $5.77 (match) · 36 history records