trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +2.7% | -7.0% | 83% | 17% | -7.7% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 86% | 14% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +3.4% | -6.4% | 86% | 14% | -7.5% |
| all | 28 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 43% | 4% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.0% | 4% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -22.2% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -29.8% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -36.6% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $41 | $41 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $155 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $61 | +$10 | +16% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $76 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $101 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Jun 11 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $21 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? | Jan 31 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 15 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Dec 11 | $4 | −$3 | -60% |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Nov 27 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 04 | $3 | $0 | -16% |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Oct 31 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 28 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Oct 27 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 27 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Oct 27 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 26 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Oct 17 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Oct 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 17 | $5 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Oct 12 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 11 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 11 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | Oct 11 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 11 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? | Oct 10 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 09 | $24 | $0 | +0% |