Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F8 0xf841…b2eb sports 1046 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,075 (-1%) realized −$1,801 · open −$274
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%853W / 170L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$85
14 days+$139
30 days+$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,262
other 17% −$3,170
world 2% +$81
politics 2% −$239
economics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$75
finance 0% −$16
tech 0% +$75
culture 0% +$14
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.5% +2.7% 92% 11% -6.5%
≤30d 109 +16.5% +5.4% 93% 12% -5.2%
≤90d 687 +5.6% -4.4% 91% 11% -10.8%
all 1023 +1.3% -8.4% 83% 15% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 15% -10.7%
10% -17.2% 14% -19.2%
15% -25.2% 12% -27.0%
20% -32.5% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$41 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$1,962
Realized−$1,801
Unrealized−$274
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses853 / 170
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1023 / 1046
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$138
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 1023 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 92¢ $459 $440 −$18 (-4%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $319 $338 +$19 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $301 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $205 $203 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Dallas Mavericks? No 98¢ 75¢ $236 $180 −$55 (-23%)
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Dallas Mavericks? No 99¢ 96¢ $99 $96 −$4 (-4%)
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? No 95¢ 97¢ $74 $75 +$2 (+2%)
Will "The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $65 $74 +$8 (+13%)
Will Nico Paz win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $144 $42 −$102 (-71%)
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 78¢ $39 $31 −$8 (-21%)
Will Aleksandar Pavlović win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-54%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 27¢ 6¢ $27 $6 −$21 (-78%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 22¢ 2¢ $41 $4 −$37 (-90%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $38 $4 −$34 (-90%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? No 11¢ 5¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-99%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 18 $246 +$2 +1%
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Hannibal Mejbri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Alexander Isak: 2+ assists Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Jun 15 $47 $0 +1%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Manu Ginobili attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kawhi Leonard attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $150 +$4 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$91 +346%
Will there be 6+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +1%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 14 $3 +$12 +372%
Will Stephon Castle lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Keldon Johnson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Jordan Clarkson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Carter Bryant lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $103 +$3 +2%
Will Carter Bryant lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +2%
Will Keldon Johnson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will Julian Champagnie lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Devin Vassell: Points O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $147 +$1 +1%
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Jose Alvarado lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $58 +$2 +4%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Will there be 5+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$3 +12%
Will there be 4+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +13%
Liam Millar: 1+ assists Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 11 $2 +$10 +442%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Steve Schirippa attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $52 +$4 +8%
Will Josh Hart lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +2%
NBA Finals: Will there be a Breen Bang in Game 3? Jun 09 $21 $0 +1%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $60 +$1 +1%
Julian Champagnie: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Mariska Hartigay attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $79 +$6 +8%
Will Larry David attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $82 +$4 +5%
Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total points? Jun 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 08 $209 +$1 +1%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $103 +$1 +1%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 07 $618 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $301 1h
Will Ivory Coast be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Gro BUY No 99¢ $205 3h
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $99 10h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $2 26h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $3 26h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $12 27h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $34 27h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $8 27h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $186 27h
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $7 2d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $12 2d
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? SELL No 100¢ $88 2d
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? SELL No 100¢ $17 2d
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $35 2d
Will Sean Sweeney be the next head coach of the Dallas Mavericks? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 3d
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 3d
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 3d
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 3d
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Dallas Mavericks? BUY No 99¢ $99 3d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $41 4d
Alexander Isak: 2+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $6 4d
Hannibal Mejbri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? SELL No 100¢ $4 5d
Will Mikal Bridges lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? SELL No 100¢ $50 5d
Will Jalen Brunson lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? SELL No 100¢ $45 5d
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? SELL No 100¢ $33 5d
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? SELL No 100¢ $75 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,961.69 · official $1,961.69 (match) · 3408 history records