Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf841…cdc8 crypto 490 markets active 3h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (148 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$997 (-11%) realized −$996 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%329W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day147.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$149
14 days−$240
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$506
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (148 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -10.8% -19.3% 48% 21% -15.3%
≤30d 491 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 54% -14.7%
≤90d 491 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 54% -14.7%
all 491 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 54% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 54% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 26% -22.9%
15% -27.7% 3% -30.3%
20% -34.8% 1% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$996
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses329 / 162
Open positions1
Markets (closed)491 / 490
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day147.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 100¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Sarpreet Singh: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $55 −$20 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$18 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 2h
Marko Arnautovic: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 15h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 100¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 100¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 25h
Sarpreet Singh: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 39h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 100¢ $3 39h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 46h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $2.58 (match) · 3500 history records