Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf83e…51af crypto 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,485 (-30%) realized −$1,483 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate38%64W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$1,562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$273
world 33% −$1,045
sports 14% −$66
politics 3% −$164
other 2% −$8
economics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -43.3% -48.7% 27% 27% -10.4%
≤30d 155 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 30% -43.1%
≤90d 157 -21.4% -28.9% 38% 30% -39.4%
all 168 -19.3% -26.9% 38% 30% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 30% -38.8%
10% -33.9% 27% -44.7%
15% -40.3% 23% -50.0%
20% -46.2% 19% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$1,483
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 104
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)168 / 171
History coverage352d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $84 +$92 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$29 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$19 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 31 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 26 $93 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 26 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 26 $116 +$108 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 26 $127 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $110 +$99 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.20 · official $59.20 (match) · 731 history records