Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:48:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf839…0651 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% $0
other 15% +$1
politics 12% −$2
sports 11% −$11
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.5% -9.1% 55% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 40 -1.7% -11.1% 35% 2% -9.7%
all 41 -4.1% -13.3% 34% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -10.1%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage492d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $50 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $35 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $83 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 −$7 -22%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $33 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $39 +$7 +17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $2 $0 -15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $7 −$3 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $97 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $267 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $309 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $285 −$2 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Drexel vs. Delaware Mar 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 11h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 38h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $27 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $27 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records