Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf836…ab89 other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,844 (-1%) realized −$1,844 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,641per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$52
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$1,624
politics 37% −$109
sports 12% −$132
economics 3% −$7
world 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 34 +5.7% -4.3% 12% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 122 -10.5% -19.1% 7% 5% -10.7%
all 149 -2.0% -11.4% 13% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 9% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 9% -18.8%
15% -27.6% 9% -26.6%
20% -34.7% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,265) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$25 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,278
Realized−$1,844
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,641
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $947 $946 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $332 $332 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,159 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,840 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,840 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,933 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,767 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $6,665 −$7 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,140 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $4,001 −$5 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,046 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $77 +$49 +64%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,673 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,156 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,724 −$4 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $522 +$1 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $902 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $5,074 −$7 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,759 −$4 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $61 +$61 +101%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $3,013 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $5,643 −$8 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $2,709 −$3 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $43 +$57 +134%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $3,887 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,028 −$4 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,211 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $2,783 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,258 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,850 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,163 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,486 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,379 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $947 50m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $832 22h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $833 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,208 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,212 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,214 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,214 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,216 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,210 3d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,212 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $332 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,526 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,528 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,549 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,552 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,421 7d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,422 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,435 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 8d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,555 8d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,557 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,559 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,561 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,338 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,339 10d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $999 11d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 11d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 33¢ $58 11d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,317 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,278.11 · official $1,278.11 (match) · 525 history records