Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf836…fcff
other · 88 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$103 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 62
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)69 / 88
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 19 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 34¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? No 42¢ 42¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will KB Home (KBH) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Will Falcons make a roster change before August? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Amadou Onana be in Belgium's Starting 11? No 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 12¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will Japan (18) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 25¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Canada (30) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 11¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading Jun 11 $4 −$1 -20%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -9%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 11 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $15 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 10 $17 −$3 -19%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? Jun 10 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Marquinhos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -10%
City Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
Will Slingshot launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 10 $6 $0 -7%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $4 −$3 -86%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 10 $3 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Kimbal Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 10 $6 −$2 -30%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 10 $8 −$2 -22%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Steve Jurvetson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 09 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the South Carolina Republica Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$7 -47%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will Graham Platner win between 70% and 75% of votes in the Maine Sena Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? Jun 09 $13 $0 -3%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Jun 09 $17 −$3 -16%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 in June? Jun 09 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 7? Jun 09 $22 $0 -1%
Will Tim Cook buy the Seattle Seahawks? Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $2 $0 -0%
Tuyo FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 08 $7 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $40 −$10 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Jun 08 $4 $0 -8%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 35% −$43
finance 20% −$20
tech 17% −$16
sports 8% −$7
crypto 8% −$10
world 5% −$2
politics 4% −$5
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? BUY No 42¢ $8 18m
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 12¢ $2 38m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 45m
Will Japan (18) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 11¢ $2 54m
Will Amadou Onana be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $2 1h
Will KB Home (KBH) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Canada (30) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 10¢ $0 6h
Will ECDSA.fail get at least 50% ahead of Google’s classified circuit BUY No 16¢ $3 9h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 10h
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $1 11h
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 12h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor SELL Yes 46¢ $9 12h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World SELL Yes 18¢ $1 12h
Will Trump say "Uber" this week? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 13h
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 13h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 14h
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 15h
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World BUY Yes 15¢ $3 22h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 16¢ $3 22h
Will Falcons make a roster change before August? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 24h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl SELL No 29¢ $6 24h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor BUY Yes 44¢ $3 24h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor BUY Yes 44¢ $6 24h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $9 24h
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $8 24h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY No 29¢ $5 24h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl BUY No 29¢ $1 24h
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -12.6% -20.9% 10% 1% -21.6%
≤30d 69 -12.6% -20.9% 10% 1% -21.6%
≤90d 69 -12.6% -20.9% 10% 1% -21.6%
all 69 -12.6% -20.9% 10% 1% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 1% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 1% -29.1%
15% -35.4% 1% -35.9%
20% -41.7% 1% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.26 · official $59.17 (match) · 254 history records