Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf831…ce13 crypto 990 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%885W / 33L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$6
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% +$8
tech 23% +$11
other 18% +$5
finance 18% +$7
weather 8% −$3
sports 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 4% -9.3%
≤30d 677 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 918 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 2% -8.8%
all 918 -0.0% -9.5% 96% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 2% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses885 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions72
Markets (closed)918 / 990
History coverage78d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 918 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 15 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $110? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 Week of June 15 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Meta (META) close above $550 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 15 above $180? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at >$265 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 96¢ 91¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $20? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 Week of June 15 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 15 above $520? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will "Office Romance" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Solana be between $30 and $40 on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? Down 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 16? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 15 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will "Ticket To Paradise (2022)" be the top US Netflix movie this week? No 100¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana reach $140 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $0 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.80 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 14? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $20 and $30 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.70 and $0.80 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.05 on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,550 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 17m
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 20m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 24m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 24m
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 26m
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 26m
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $6 27m
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $3 27m
Will XRP dip to $1.10 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 28m
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 28m
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 97¢ $1 30m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 15 above $325? BUY No 99¢ $2 34m
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 44m
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $2 46m
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $3 46m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 47m
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 48m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 51m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 51m
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 15 above $510? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 52m
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 15 above $520? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 52m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $2.75 Week of June 15 BUY No 99¢ $6 54m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 55m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 55m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 55m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1 56m
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $268 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 58m
Will "Poor Things" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $2 59m
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 99¢ $1 59m
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of t BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.20 · official $264.94 (match) · 2363 history records