Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf831…dfa6 crypto 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-5%) realized −$132 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%118W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days−$181
14 days−$249
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$23
other 16% −$183
sports 10% −$65
world 3% +$30
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -28.4% -35.3% 20% 18% -33.9%
≤30d 348 -10.6% -19.1% 34% 30% -18.4%
≤90d 348 -10.6% -19.1% 34% 30% -18.4%
all 348 -10.6% -19.1% 34% 30% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 30% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 27% -26.2%
15% -33.9% 24% -33.4%
20% -40.4% 20% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses118 / 230
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)348 / 356
History coverage20d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $9 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $18 −$4 -21%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$51 +996%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 −$1 -17%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $25 −$3 -11%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 +$25 +310%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 +$9 +113%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +459%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -88%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -76%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +122%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 52m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 58m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 58m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 58m
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 9¢ $21 59m
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.70 · official $38.70 · 1020 history records