Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf830…0454 crypto 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$548 (-4%) realized −$548 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%99W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$133
14 days+$133
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$142
other 3% −$61
sports 2% −$103
economics 0% −$15
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -14.5% -22.7% 68% 20% -7.6%
≤30d 56 -14.5% -22.7% 68% 20% -7.6%
≤90d 56 -14.5% -22.7% 68% 20% -7.6%
all 157 +9.1% -1.3% 63% 37% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 37% -11.8%
10% -10.7% 24% -20.3%
15% -19.4% 17% -28.0%
20% -27.3% 10% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses99 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage160d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $369 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $336 +$27 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $303 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $263 +$47 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $165 +$99 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $160 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $367 −$62 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $192 +$24 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $647 −$101 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $272 +$18 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $234 +$47 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $220 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $220 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $193 +$25 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $181 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $160 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $151 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $130 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $130 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $111 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $375 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $369 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $363 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $336 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $332 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $303 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $311 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $263 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $264 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $165 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $163 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $160 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $163 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $142 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $142 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $225 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $216 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $192 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $189 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $351 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $358 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $296 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $290 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $272 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $281 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $234 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $218 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $193 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records