Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf830…b341 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-8%) realized −$14 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$29
other 41% −$26
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +11.2% +0.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
≤30d 46 +11.2% +0.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
≤90d 46 +11.2% +0.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
all 46 +11.2% +0.6% 37% 35% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 35% -18.0%
10% -9.0% 33% -25.9%
15% -17.8% 30% -33.0%
20% -25.9% 30% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $19 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $61 −$61 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $11 +$10 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $14 +$7 +53%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$9 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$4 -44%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +108%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $14 +$15 +103%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 +$6 +10%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 −$6 -35%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$12 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$14 +206%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +982%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $7 +$13 +206%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +35%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -42%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $19 28h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 28h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $61 46h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 46h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $0 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $21 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $11 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $14 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL No 2¢ $0 2d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand SELL Yes 97¢ $21 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY No 40¢ $7 2d
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $14 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Knicks 99¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 79 history records