Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F8 0xf82f…be89 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$175 (+21%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$126
14 days+$126
30 days+$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$173
other 10% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +22.9% +11.2% 100% 100% +10.4%
≤30d 6 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤90d 6 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 100% +12.5%
all 6 +25.9% +13.9% 100% 100% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 100% +12.5%
10% +3.0% 67% +1.7%
15% -6.9% 17% -8.1%
20% -16.0% 0% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage35d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $231 +$34 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $190 +$51 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $149 +$41 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $117 +$32 +27%
Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO? May 30 $85 +$32 +38%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 30 $70 +$15 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 87¢ $231 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 77¢ $90 3h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 80¢ $101 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $149 5d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Marcus McGhee 78¢ $117 14d
Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 72¢ $85 21d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Rousey 82¢ $70 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records