Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf82c…189e sports 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%28W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$6
politics 22% −$4
other 22% −$8
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% −$2
world 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 4 -1.5% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
all 200 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses28 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage169d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $35 $0 -1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $45 $0 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 15 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 13 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 12 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 11 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 10 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 09 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $97 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 07 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $45 +$1 +2%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 6h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 12d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 12d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 94¢ $39 20d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $40 21d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $45 33d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $45 33d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $33 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $32 91d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $45 91d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $25 92d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 92d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $32 92d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 95¢ $32 92d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $39 92d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $39 92d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $36 92d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $36 92d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $31 92d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $31 93d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 93d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $35 93d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $45 93d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 93d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $45 93d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 94¢ $4 93d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 94¢ $5 93d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 94¢ $37 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $35 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 789 history records