Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf82b…ed2f crypto 924 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$696 (-5%) realized −$696 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate79%733W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day165.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$3
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 +1.4% -8.3% 84% 23% -9.6%
≤30d 924 +1.6% -8.1% 79% 13% -10.1%
≤90d 924 +1.6% -8.1% 79% 13% -10.1%
all 924 +1.6% -8.1% 79% 13% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 13% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 8% -18.7%
15% -24.9% 5% -26.5%
20% -32.3% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$696
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses733 / 191
Open positions0
Markets (closed)924 / 924
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day165.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 924 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $27 +$13 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $33 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $37 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records