Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F8 0xf829…e771 other 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$562 (+13%) realized +$561 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%42W / 46L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$78
14 days+$54
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$785
other 24% −$180
sports 14% +$3
crypto 3% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 40% -1.3%
≤30d 66 -15.9% -23.9% 47% 42% -13.1%
≤90d 88 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 44% +2.5%
all 88 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 44% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 44% +2.5%
10% -28.1% 39% -7.3%
15% -35.1% 32% -16.3%
20% -41.4% 26% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$19 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$561
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses42 / 46
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage70d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium leading at halftime? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $50 +$21 +42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -71%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$10 +32%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$11 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +105%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$27 +53%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -97%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$11 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $20 −$8 -41%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$4 -41%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Jordan Ayew: 4+ shots Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Harry Kane: 4+ shots Jun 17 $20 +$25 +121%
Iñaki Williams: 3+ shots Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $30 −$11 -38%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +18%
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$12 -29%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$20 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$17 +34%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $165 +$13 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 10¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $5 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $10 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $26 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 13h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $10 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 13h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $15 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 2¢ $1 24h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 69¢ $20 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 27h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 69¢ $25 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.61 · official $20.61 (match) · 183 history records