Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf826…bf34 crypto 559 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-3%) realized −$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate59%331W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$3
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$777
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +19.9% +8.5% 65% 58% +7.0%
≤30d 283 -3.3% -12.5% 59% 48% -18.7%
≤90d 559 +19.8% +8.4% 59% 48% -17.6%
all 559 +19.8% +8.4% 59% 48% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 48% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.0% 29% -25.5%
15% -11.4% 18% -32.7%
20% -20.1% 13% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses331 / 228
Open positions0
Markets (closed)559 / 559
History coverage78d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 559 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +300%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 25 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 25 $4 +$8 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 25 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $17 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $13 −$11 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $8 −$4 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 24 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $17 −$11 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 24 $4 −$3 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 24 $13 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 24 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 24 $29 −$8 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 24 $4 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 24 $8 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 24 $8 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 24 $8 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 10m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 11m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 21m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 17h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 18h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 18h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 19h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 19h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3292 history records