Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
F8 0xf826…0ce4 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+7%) realized +$21 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$63
other 39% −$43
crypto 10% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +9.4% -1.0% 58% 58% -5.5%
≤30d 27 +15.8% +4.7% 59% 59% +0.6%
≤90d 30 +16.7% +5.6% 57% 57% -0.9%
all 30 +16.7% +5.6% 57% 57% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 57% -0.9%
10% -4.5% 57% -10.4%
15% -13.7% 53% -19.0%
20% -22.2% 47% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage197d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $30 +$14 +48%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +75%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$9 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$3 -26%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +57%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $5 −$4 -72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $10 +$19 +182%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 10 $20 +$55 +276%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Team Spirit win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? May 05 $33 −$33 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Tot BUY 12¢ $5 8h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 8h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 8h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 8h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 8h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 10h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $20 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 11h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 15h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 41¢ $7 30h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $5 33h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $10 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 39h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 39h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.76 · official $12.76 (match) · 61 history records