Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf825…ec1e
crypto · 467 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$420 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$412 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$191
Realized−$412
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses287 / 166
Open positions14
Markets (closed)453 / 467
Avg bet$15
Trades / day43.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 453 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days−$165
14 days−$125
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? No 94¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? No 92¢ 93¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? No 96¢ 95¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 92¢ 88¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 12? No 98¢ 91¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 91¢ 81¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? No 89¢ 76¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? No 57¢ 54¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 34¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No 44¢ 26¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? No 33¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Down 49¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Down 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 23? No 96¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on May 23? No 96¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 11, 4PM ET? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$7 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 11 $11 −$6 -55%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$4 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $27 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 10 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$8 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $15 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 3h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 34¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 11, 4PM ET? BUY No 98¢ $15 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? SELL No 11¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 35¢ $6 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 36¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 91¢ $15 17h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 55¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 55¢ $10 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -10.1% -18.7% 58% 23% -15.2%
≤30d 453 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 26% -14.9%
≤90d 453 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 26% -14.9%
all 453 -7.7% -16.5% 63% 26% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 26% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 17% -23.0%
15% -31.8% 11% -30.4%
20% -38.4% 9% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.62 · official $190.79 (match) · 1142 history records