Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf824…651f sports 445 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,223 (-13%) realized −$1,221 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%176W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day73.3pace
Fees−$140est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$232
14 days−$232
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$372
other 10% +$19
crypto 2% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 291 -13.1% -21.4% 41% 33% -12.9%
≤30d 372 -14.4% -22.5% 40% 31% -13.6%
≤90d 443 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 32% -12.9%
all 443 -10.4% -18.9% 40% 32% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 32% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 24% -21.2%
15% -33.8% 17% -28.8%
20% -40.3% 13% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,221
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses176 / 267
Est. fees paid−$140
Open positions2
Markets (closed)443 / 445
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day73.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Over 36¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Under 45¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$19 +72%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $11 −$9 -79%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $11 −$8 -75%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$11 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +47%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$16 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$21 +66%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $46 −$12 -26%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $8 +$3 +32%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $51 −$10 -20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 −$30 -60%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $51 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $13 −$10 -75%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $8 −$2 -28%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $41 +$14 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Jun 23 $7 −$6 -76%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $27 +$8 +31%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $5 −$4 -77%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $34 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez Jun 23 $1 −$1 -81%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $31 −$2 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$5 -10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 23 $9 +$2 +19%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $51 +$48 +96%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $51 −$31 -60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $33 −$6 -18%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $24 −$10 -40%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Laura Samson Jun 23 $12 −$9 -77%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 23 $17 +$9 +54%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $21 +$14 +69%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $51 +$26 +51%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $8 +$7 +81%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $47 −$29 -61%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $15 −$3 -21%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $23 −$10 -41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Talia Gibson vs Madison Keys Jun 23 $6 +$1 +16%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $13 −$1 -11%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $5 −$2 -35%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $51 +$1 +3%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $43 +$8 +19%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $51 +$14 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $2 −$1 -76%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $45 −$22 -48%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $5 −$3 -51%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $19 +$4 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $16 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 17¢ $0 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 21¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 19¢ $26 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Ghana 74¢ $8 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $20 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 74¢ $6 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $16 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 72¢ $2 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $25 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 24¢ $11 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 56¢ $29 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 30¢ $25 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $1 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 45¢ $2 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 19¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 3500 history records