Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F8 0xf823…e7ef sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$621 (-24%) realized −$575 · open −$46

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip

Net edge-27%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$115per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$696

7 days−$696

14 days−$696

30 days−$696

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-27.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-62.4%	-66.0%	11%	11%	-87.2%
≤30d	9	-62.4%	-66.0%	11%	11%	-87.2%
≤90d	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	45%	40%	-34.1%
all	20	-19.3%	-27.0%	45%	40%	-34.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.0%	40%	-34.1%
10%	-34.0%	35%	-40.4%
15%	-40.4%	30%	-46.1%
20%	-46.2%	30%	-51.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late -49% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$66 vs −$114 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$575

Unrealized−$46

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions2

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage44d

Avg bet$115

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	6¢	0¢	$20	$0	−$20 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	40¢	0¢	$26	$0	−$26 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$74	−$35	-47%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?	Jun 16	$196	−$196	-100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jun 16	$203	−$203	-100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09?	Jun 16	$102	−$102	-100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$101	−$101	-100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?	Jun 16	$101	−$101	-100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$27	+$49	+186%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07?	May 07	$101	+$77	+76%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5	May 07	$41	+$23	+57%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	May 06	$66	+$45	+68%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$162	−$155	-96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	May 05	$202	+$120	+59%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	May 04	$51	−$10	-19%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	May 04	$354	−$346	-98%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	May 04	$101	+$20	+20%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	May 04	$101	+$1	+1%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?	May 04	$263	+$194	+74%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5	May 04	$191	+$63	+33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Down	89¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$42	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	16¢	$39	7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$21	8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$53	8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$27	31h
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09?	BUY Yes	29¢	$102	38d
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$101	38d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	39d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07?	SELL Yes	100¢	$178	40d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	74¢	$64	40d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$41	40d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	40d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$111	41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	SELL Yes	2¢	$7	41d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	43¢	$203	41d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$66	41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	30¢	$61	41d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	SELL Yes	100¢	$322	42d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	42d
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$41	43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	SELL Yes	1¢	$8	43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	43d
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	43d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$121	43d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	63¢	$102	43d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 50 history records