Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf81e…9e79
sports · 10 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$23 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 3 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 49¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 31¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner T1 29¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$7 +164%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $24 +$32 +136%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $15 +$31 +202%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $26 −$25 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $5 +$4 +76%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $5 +$4 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $11 17m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $1 21m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $3 51m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 47¢ $1 52m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $1 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 97¢ $56 214d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 35¢ $8 214d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 $2 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 35¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 50¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $4 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 55¢ $6 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $6 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 57¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 $0 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 19¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 40¢ $6 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 53¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster $0 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 89¢ $46 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 17¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 59¢ $5 215d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 97¢ $9 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +164.2% +139.0% 100% 100% +139.0%
≤30d 1 +164.2% +139.0% 100% 100% +139.0%
≤90d 1 +164.2% +139.0% 100% 100% +139.0%
all 7 +65.5% +49.7% 71% 71% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +49.7% 71% +11.5%
10% +35.4% 71% +0.8%
15% +22.3% 71% -8.9%
20% +10.3% 71% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.04 (match) · 34 history records