Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:04:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf81c…4540 crypto 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,639 (+7%) realized +$4,973 · open −$334
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%132W / 159L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$951now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$9,344
14 days−$8,437
30 days−$7,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$7,003
other 10% −$2,295
finance 7% +$55
economics 6% −$1,506
world 6% +$2,276
sports 5% −$1,681
politics 1% −$400
tech 1% −$474
weather 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -46.4% -51.5% 26% 25% -71.8%
≤30d 93 -17.0% -24.9% 38% 37% -45.9%
≤90d 281 +5.1% -4.9% 46% 44% -4.7%
all 291 +5.1% -4.9% 45% 43% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 43% -5.0%
10% -14.0% 42% -14.1%
15% -22.3% 42% -22.4%
20% -29.9% 40% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$158 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$951
Realized+$4,973
Unrealized−$334
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses132 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions9
Markets (closed)291 / 300
History coverage424d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 29¢ 32¢ $250 $277 +$27 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Down 51¢ 50¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 17¢ 14¢ $250 $200 −$50 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $250 $65 −$185 (-74%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 8¢ $75 $64 −$11 (-15%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $125 $22 −$103 (-83%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 20 $208 +$40 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $57 +$46 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $113 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $136 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$57 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during April press conference? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $284 −$284 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11AM ET Jun 18 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $362 −$362 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $387 −$387 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 51¢ $259 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 10¢ $77 2h
Epstein client list released by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $258 9h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $257 9h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 26¢ $248 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $94 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.73 · official $950.73 (match) · 792 history records