Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf81a…5d86 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,393 (+22%) realized +$1,393 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$1,703
other 33% +$3,121
crypto 20% −$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -14.7% -22.9% 30% 30% +4.5%
≤30d 27 -14.7% -22.9% 30% 30% +4.5%
≤90d 27 -14.7% -22.9% 30% 30% +4.5%
all 27 -14.7% -22.9% 30% 30% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 30% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 30% -5.5%
15% -37.0% 30% -14.6%
20% -43.2% 30% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$505 vs −$165 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,393
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $159 −$90 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $130 −$41 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$85 +83%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,099 +$3,140 +150%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,781 −$1,754 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$55 -54%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$10 -10%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $224 −$220 -98%
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $103 +$173 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $130 −$74 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $130 −$117 -90%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 +$308 +301%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $153 +$222 +145%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $83 −$34 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$10 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $304 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,240 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,099 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,781 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $48 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 15h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 37¢ $102 16h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 46¢ $102 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $94 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 16h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 14¢ $10 17h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 14¢ $10 17h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 40¢ $102 17h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 55¢ $101 17h
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 100¢ $276 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $31 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records