Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf818…d23d
sports · 72 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$220 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$189 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$200
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses55 / 16
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage107d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 1 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$138
14 days−$190
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $104 +$62 +59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$17 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$31 -46%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $313 −$274 -88%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $32 −$26 -82%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $271 +$36 +13%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $177 +$51 +29%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 07 $153 +$15 +10%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 07 $304 −$72 -24%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $179 +$55 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $160 +$19 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $117 +$43 +36%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $106 +$11 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $231 +$26 +11%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $52 +$26 +49%
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos Jun 06 $154 −$101 -66%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $251 −$140 -56%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $250 +$10 +4%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $63 +$18 +28%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $500 +$106 +21%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $921 +$36 +4%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22? Apr 03 $31 −$31 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 30 $384 −$16 -4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Mar 29 $85 −$1 -1%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 22 $300 +$18 +6%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $129 +$2 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $119 +$10 +9%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 22 $527 −$8 -2%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $150 +$77 +51%
Warriors vs. Hawks Mar 22 $437 +$14 +3%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $372 −$49 -13%
Thunder vs. Wizards Mar 21 $126 +$10 +8%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $65 +$11 +18%
Celtics vs. Grizzlies Mar 21 $109 +$56 +51%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 21 $418 −$9 -2%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 20 $92 +$26 +28%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 20 $83 +$9 +11%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Mar 12 $109 +$1 +1%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Italy Mar 11 $20 −$18 -88%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Czechia Mar 10 $125 +$2 +1%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico Mar 10 $20 +$5 +23%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $60 +$20 +34%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $20 +$4 +18%
Rockets vs. Spurs Mar 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Knicks vs. Lakers Mar 08 $50 +$1 +2%
First Round Pool C: Japan vs. Australia Mar 08 $90 +$4 +5%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $70 +$19 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 62% +$163
other 34% +$286
crypto 4% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $53 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $36 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $36 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $67 8h
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 58¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 10¢ $33 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 93¢ $307 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $307 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $271 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $201 6d
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $228 6d
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 77¢ $177 6d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants SELL Hanwha Eagles 99¢ $148 6d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants SELL Hanwha Eagles 99¢ $20 6d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Hanwha Eagles 90¢ $148 6d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants BUY Hanwha Eagles 90¢ $4 6d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 100¢ $0 6d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 98¢ $99 6d
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 99¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -6.9% -15.8% 58% 50% -15.9%
≤30d 21 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 57% -14.4%
≤90d 40 +1.7% -8.0% 68% 48% -8.3%
all 71 +3.2% -6.6% 77% 44% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 44% -7.7%
10% -15.5% 24% -16.5%
15% -23.7% 11% -24.6%
20% -31.2% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.89 · official $199.89 (match) · 202 history records