Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf817…e266 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 617d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$11
other 20% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% +$10
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +2.3% -7.4% 25% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 33 +4.7% -5.3% 18% 6% -8.8%
all 44 +3.4% -6.5% 18% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 5% -9.5%
10% -15.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 5% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 98% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage617d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $56 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$10 +129%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $51 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 10 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $34 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 27 $2 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $242 −$2 -1%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $586 −$5 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 27 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 31h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 34h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $22 24d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 25d
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $64 27d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $64 27d
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $8 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 32d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 34d
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 43¢ $8 35d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.24 · official $35.24 (match) · 272 history records