Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf815…0702 other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
politics 23% −$2
other 19% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
sports 7% +$8
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.5% -10.9% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 30% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 30% 0% -10.1%
all 49 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -9.4%
10% -23.4% 4% -18.0%
15% -30.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage479d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $27 −$2 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 05 $23 $0 -0%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 29 $1 $0 -20%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 29 $1 $0 -28%
Will the Environmental Protection Agency be most efficient on March 31 Mar 28 $4 −$2 -46%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $21 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 23 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 22? Mar 23 $24 $0 -0%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $2 $0 -4%
Mt. St. Mary's vs. Fairfield Mar 20 $17 +$7 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $28 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 81¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $28 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $4 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $15 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $13 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $35 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $11 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $24 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $7 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $31 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $25 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $5 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $33 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 11d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $6 360d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $7 377d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $7 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records