Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf814…b21f politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$1
other 30% −$1
sports 15% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.0% -9.5% 7% 0% -9.5%
all 20 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×12.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage114d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $92 +$2 +2%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $92 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $94 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $94 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $93 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $93 13h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $93 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $93 9d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $93 14d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $93 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $93 20d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $3 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 21d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $93 29d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $93 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $93 34d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $93 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $94 40d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $92 40d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $92 45d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 46d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $92 52d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $92 53d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 69d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 69d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $93 72d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $93 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records