Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf813…ba72 politics 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$6
sports 28% −$2
other 10% +$2
crypto 8% −$1
culture 6% $0
world 2% $0
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.4% -25.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 -9.2% -17.8% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -8.3% -17.1% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 56 -11.2% -19.6% 14% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 2% -9.8%
10% -27.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -34.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage226d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 -49%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1 $0 -21%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $95 −$1 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $86 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 16? Feb 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $2 $0 -14%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $176 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $88 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $91 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? Jan 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 20 $90 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $1 $0 -50%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 14 $13 +$2 +18%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $281 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $1 $0 -57%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -14%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $92 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $91 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 25 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $81 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 32h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 3d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $84 8d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $84 10d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 20d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $85 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.05 · official $83.05 (match) · 250 history records