Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf811…c162 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$269 (-31%) realized −$272 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%23W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$156
sports 17% −$113
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -49.7% -54.5% 17% 17% -63.8%
≤30d 24 -49.7% -54.5% 17% 17% -63.8%
≤90d 24 -49.7% -54.5% 17% 17% -63.8%
all 90 -39.0% -44.8% 26% 26% -40.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 26% -40.8%
10% -50.1% 24% -46.5%
15% -54.9% 20% -51.7%
20% -59.4% 19% -56.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses23 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)90 / 103
History coverage600d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 7¢ 25¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+256%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +233%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +246%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +223%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Cameroon vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jan 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cameroon vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cameroon win on 2026-01-09? Jan 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Mali vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Mali vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jan 08 $1 +$3 +334%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-10? Jan 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $2 +$2 +104%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Burkina Faso: Both Teams to Score Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Algeria vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-21? Sep 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2025-09-08? Sep 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2025-09-08? Sep 08 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-08-31? Aug 31 $4 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 31 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-04-23? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-22? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Manchester City vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-21? Apr 21 $1 +$2 +177%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-20? Apr 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Wolves win on 2025-04-20? Apr 20 $1 +$2 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 54m
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 54m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 19¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 34¢ $1 28h
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 28h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 37h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.31 · official $40.33 (match) · 303 history records