Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
F8 0xf80f…34a9 other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,773 (+23%) realized +$7,783 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%70W / 39L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$447
7 days+$525
14 days+$235
30 days+$6,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$5,636
sports 10% +$767
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.9% -0.5% 87% 33% -2.3%
≤30d 109 +40.2% +26.9% 64% 44% +8.9%
≤90d 109 +40.2% +26.9% 64% 44% +8.9%
all 109 +40.2% +26.9% 64% 44% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.9% 44% +8.9%
10% ← realistic here +14.7% 34% -1.5%
15% +3.6% 27% -11.1%
20% -6.5% 20% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$26 · ×4.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.21 per $1 lost it wins $7.21
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,783
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses70 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage28d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,002 +$47 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $348 +$125 +36%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $250 +$31 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $514 +$23 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,443 +$199 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $643 +$19 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$3 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $25 +$10 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $250 +$22 +9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 +$15 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $250 +$32 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $1,001 +$35 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $950 +$55 +6%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $730 −$380 -52%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $462 −$44 -10%
CDPJuniorFC vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $4 $0 +6%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $10 $0 -5%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $250 −$13 -5%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +3%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $214 +$238 +111%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $94 +$26 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $191 +$145 +76%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $500 −$123 -25%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $535 −$59 -11%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5 May 31 $141 +$87 +62%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2,293 +$817 +36%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 May 31 $11 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $554 −$81 -15%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 May 31 $100 +$21 +21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,264 +$379 +30%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $250 +$53 +21%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $237 +$39 +17%
Grêmio FBPA vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $503 +$29 +6%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $456 +$1,455 +319%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $256 −$23 -9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,589 +$30 +2%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 1.5 May 29 $9 +$140 +1472%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 1.5 May 28 $201 +$137 +68%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $75 +$17 +22%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $274 +$3 +1%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $502 −$6 -1%
CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 1.5 May 27 $57 +$162 +283%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $86 24m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $316 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 55¢ $100 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $498 25m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 52¢ $492 36m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $9 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $178 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $312 39m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 39m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $490 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $500 45m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $189 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $346 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $250 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $37 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $16 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 42¢ $245 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 1244 history records