Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf80d…5f46 other 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%14W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$3
other 22% $0
politics 19% −$3
economics 10% −$1
world 8% −$1
crypto 8% −$2
culture 7% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 172 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses14 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage165d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 19 $51 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $54 $0 -1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $9 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $173 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $220 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $162 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $56 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 16 $56 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 16 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $51 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $51 8h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 7d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 7d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $43 19d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $43 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 32d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $16 117d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $16 118d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $38 118d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $38 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $54 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $54 118d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $48 118d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $48 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $53 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $53 118d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $51 118d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $51 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $3 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $50 118d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $50 118d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $9 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $36 118d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $9 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $40 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 118d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $55 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 618 history records