Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf808…a234 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$20
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$10
sports 24% −$17
other 22% −$17
crypto 9% +$4
finance 6% −$4
economics 5% −$4
culture 5% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 66 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 121 -0.4% -9.9% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 141 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 116
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage102d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $94 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $107 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $117 −$1 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $24 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $159 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 $0 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $52 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $237 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $57 +$1 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $207 −$1 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $61 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $62 5h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $45 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 12h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $58 13h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $65 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $65 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 31h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $45 31h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 41h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 42h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $14 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $59 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $60 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.79 · official $38.79 (match) · 526 history records