Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf807…c5dc sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,496 (-7%) realized −$3,490 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$631per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$511est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$2,043
world 31% −$1,697
other 23% −$2,753
finance 2% −$453
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +51.1% +36.8% 33% 33% -19.0%
≤30d 73 -12.5% -20.8% 33% 32% -22.1%
≤90d 73 -12.5% -20.8% 33% 32% -22.1%
all 73 -12.5% -20.8% 33% 32% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 32% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 32% -29.5%
15% -35.3% 29% -36.4%
20% -41.7% 26% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$788) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -32% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$485 vs −$379 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$4,131
Realized−$3,490
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$511
Open positions12
Markets (closed)73 / 85
History coverage29d
Avg bet$631
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,163 $1,371 +$207 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $962 $958 −$4 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $420 $352 −$68 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $313 $333 +$20 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $312 $315 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $226 $190 −$36 (-16%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $180 $171 −$9 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $204 $160 −$44 (-21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $205 $128 −$77 (-38%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 15¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,668 −$176 -11%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2,147 −$861 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $148 +$185 +124%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $258 −$54 -21%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $788 −$177 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $194 +$536 +276%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $201 −$196 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1,336 +$1,597 +120%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $2,700 −$1,549 -57%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $1,002 −$146 -15%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $552 −$540 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $102 +$352 +344%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $320 +$266 +83%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $1,235 −$799 -65%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $241 −$237 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $105 −$102 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $267 −$265 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $460 +$424 +92%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $650 +$329 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,253 −$1,232 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $827 +$822 +99%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $238 +$262 +110%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $301 −$300 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $704 +$413 +59%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $356 −$139 -39%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $283 −$278 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $303 −$295 -97%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $609 −$100 -16%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $962 −$830 -86%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $913 −$891 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $234 +$171 +73%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $254 −$250 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $713 −$250 -35%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $4,143 −$595 -14%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $117 +$433 +369%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $522 −$514 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $1,000 −$435 -44%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $348 −$327 -94%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $504 +$253 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $990 +$330 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $353 −$350 -99%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $342 −$339 -99%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $81 +$7 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $467 −$456 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $255 −$255 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $978 −$227 -23%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $801 −$545 -68%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $911 +$514 +56%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $205 −$200 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,003 +$448 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $153 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $312 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $121 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $170 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $420 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,327 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,249 23h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $119 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 12¢ $164 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $535 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $93 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $99 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $233 45h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $331 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $333 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $190 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $205 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 33¢ $175 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $175 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 31¢ $244 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $241 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $204 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,131.10 · official $4,131.10 (match) · 463 history records