Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf805…541d other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$5 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%35W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$17
world 31% $0
sports 21% +$2
politics 3% −$1
finance 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +33.4% +20.7% 52% 39% -17.5%
≤30d 26 +23.4% +11.7% 50% 38% -20.9%
≤90d 48 +2.5% -7.2% 52% 40% -17.4%
all 58 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 43% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 43% -15.4%
10% -13.4% 28% -23.5%
15% -21.8% 17% -30.9%
20% -29.5% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses35 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)58 / 67
History coverage98d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 28¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 38¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +549%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$5 -30%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $5 +$1 +28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 18 $1 −$1 -87%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 30 $1 $0 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Apr 24 $1 $0 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 24 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Apr 22 $1 $0 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $5 $0 +10%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -96%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 04 $6 +$1 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $5 +$3 +55%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 01 $5 +$4 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $5 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 29 $1 $0 +20%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $10 1h
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 16h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 26h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 28h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 39h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 39h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 40h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.30 · official $42.30 (match) · 129 history records