Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7fe…21df crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-23%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.7% +15.5% 36% 36% -36.8%
≤30d 11 +27.7% +15.5% 36% 36% -36.8%
≤90d 11 +27.7% +15.5% 36% 36% -36.8%
all 11 +27.7% +15.5% 36% 36% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.5% 36% -36.8%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 27% -42.8%
15% -5.6% 27% -48.4%
20% -14.9% 27% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $33 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$5 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$19 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.52 · official $9.52 (match) · 28 history records