Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F7 0xf7fe…07cf world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$436 (+25%) realized +$106 · open +$330
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$433
politics 4% +$35
other 4% +$7
sports 4% −$36
crypto 1% −$4
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.6% -31.8% 0% 0% -21.9%
≤30d 6 -18.1% -25.9% 17% 17% -1.7%
≤90d 31 -29.9% -36.6% 35% 32% +4.6%
all 31 -29.9% -36.6% 35% 32% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 32% +4.6%
10% -42.6% 23% -5.4%
15% -48.2% 23% -14.5%
20% -53.2% 23% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$330
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage91d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 98¢ $855 $1,155 +$300 (+35%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 73¢ 100¢ $102 $141 +$38 (+37%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 43¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-25%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+118%)
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 9¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 16 $3 $0 -12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -7%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $22 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $196 +$29 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $78 +$48 +61%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $104 +$23 +22%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 19 $70 +$36 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $16 +$24 +152%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $56 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 18 $20 +$10 +52%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 18 $18 −$7 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 58¢ $3 25m
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $10 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $2 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $16 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 44¢ $27 2h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $30 2h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 64¢ $3 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $3 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $4 26h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $18 4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $7 4d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $10 4d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 4d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 4d
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 68¢ $11 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,373.53 · official $1,373.53 (match) · 98 history records