Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7f8…0fd7 sports 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$700 (-2%) realized −$700 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%162W / 39L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days−$471
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$658
other 22% +$347
weather 6% −$530
tech 0% +$7
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 33% -3.9%
≤30d 126 -0.7% -10.1% 78% 32% -11.3%
≤90d 177 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 25% -10.8%
all 201 -0.7% -10.1% 81% 22% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 22% -11.2%
10% -18.7% 2% -19.7%
15% -26.6% 1% -27.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$85 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$700
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses162 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage97d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $130 +$18 +14%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 −$1 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $201 −$65 -32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $612 −$610 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $202 −$148 -74%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $201 +$15 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $503 +$66 +13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$13 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 +$19 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $304 +$24 +8%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $201 +$27 +13%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $201 +$26 +13%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $201 +$21 +11%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $200 +$17 +8%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $200 +$14 +7%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $201 +$19 +10%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $201 +$22 +11%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $181 +$3 +2%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $201 +$24 +12%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $201 +$15 +7%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $219 +$43 +20%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Malawi win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $401 +$20 +5%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $201 +$23 +12%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $191 +$28 +15%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $200 +$10 +5%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $200 −$116 -58%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $201 −$200 -100%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $451 +$50 +11%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $200 +$12 +6%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $302 −$300 -99%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $503 −$216 -43%
Bulgaria vs. Montenegro: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $201 +$19 +10%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $381 +$45 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $200 −$98 -49%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $134 +$10 +7%
CD Castellón vs. SD Eibar: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $201 +$18 +9%
Real Zaragoza vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5 May 31 $201 +$21 +11%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $300 +$12 +4%
UD Almería vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 4.5 May 31 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $161 −$3 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $301 +$39 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $148 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $80 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $89 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $88 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $70 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $70 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 59¢ $136 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $111 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 19¢ $53 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $301 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 98¢ $215 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 91¢ $201 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $326 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $330 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $200 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 86¢ $238 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $202 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $301 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $220 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 90¢ $201 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $328 10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 437 history records