Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7f6…e517 other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,391 (+8%) realized +$1,301 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%44W / 50L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$728
14 days+$728
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$743
sports 14% +$519
crypto 2% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.3% -2.9% 54% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 80 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 94 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 43% -2.2%
all 94 -5.5% -14.5% 47% 43% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 43% -2.2%
10% -22.7% 35% -11.5%
15% -30.1% 30% -20.1%
20% -37.0% 21% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$90 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,390
Realized+$1,301
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses44 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage97d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,000 $1,155 +$155 (+15%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $300 $235 −$65 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 −$132 -65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $503 +$130 +26%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $403 +$123 +31%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $122 +$139 +114%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 +$396 +194%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $303 +$165 +54%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$291 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$120 +234%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$64 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $901 +$49 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $403 +$116 +29%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$189 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$84 +206%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $301 +$44 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $273 +$118 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 09 $152 +$90 +60%
Will Ecuador vs. Guatemala end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $403 +$105 +26%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $401 +$43 +11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $80 +$5 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $61 +$151 +246%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $203 −$162 -80%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $203 +$142 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 24¢ $70 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 27h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $122 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $600 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $210 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $950 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $901 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $519 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,389.68 · official $1,396.74 (match) · 199 history records