Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf7f6…3e59 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$64 (+35%) realized +$62 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$53
other 28% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +21.3% +9.8% 67% 67% +37.6%
≤30d 3 +21.3% +9.8% 67% 67% +37.6%
≤90d 3 +21.3% +9.8% 67% 67% +37.6%
all 3 +21.3% +9.8% 67% 67% +37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 67% +37.6%
10% -0.8% 67% +24.4%
15% -10.3% 33% +12.4%
20% -19.1% 33% +1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$20 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.15 per $1 lost it wins $4.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 60¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$71 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY 14¢ $31 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.45 · official $32.45 (match) · 7 history records