Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf7f4…5d61 other 116 markets active 2d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$260 (-0%) realized −$261 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate18%21W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,059per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$21
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$79
other 37% −$127
sports 19% −$62
world 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -12.7% -21.0% 7% 3% -10.4%
all 115 +0.3% -9.2% 18% 14% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 14% -9.7%
10% -17.9% 14% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 11% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,464) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$11 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$669
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,059
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $668 $669 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,131 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,954 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,454 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,771 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,168 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $311 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 04 $473 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $885 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $389 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $392 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,857 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,580 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,546 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,812 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $2,055 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1,756 −$2 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $5,110 −$4 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $6,479 −$6 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $2,086 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $2,189 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $793 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $4,786 −$5 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 28 $1,885 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $1,857 −$2 -0%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $963 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $802 −$1 -0%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Mar 26 $81 +$88 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $668 45h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,086 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,044 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,046 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,067 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,070 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,145 10d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,146 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 11d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $807 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $808 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $966 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $968 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,056 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $791 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $792 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 17d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $323 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 17d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $389 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $389 20d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $392 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $668.99 · official $668.99 (match) · 398 history records