Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf7f4…1e34
weather · 519 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,749 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,660 · open −$89
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$239
Realized−$1,660
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses193 / 462
Open positions12
Markets (closed)655 / 519
History coverage34d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day99.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 655 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,310
7 days−$2,132
14 days−$2,099
30 days−$1,426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $104 $99 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+298%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Yes 22¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+348%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 20? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 1? Jun 12 $36 −$19 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15 Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 12 $45 −$61 -134%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ap Jun 12 $16 −$16 -103%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 25? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 12? Jun 12 $2 +$18 +827%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 3? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 16? Jun 12 $53 −$61 -116%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 27? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 15? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 2? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 20? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Jun 12 $172 −$183 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30? Jun 12 $80 −$79 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 1? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 18? Jun 12 $89 −$85 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on April 23? Jun 12 $5 −$14 -253%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 25? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28? Jun 12 $5 +$46 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 18? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 23? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 68-69°F on April 19 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 18 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 8? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 30? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 3? Jun 12 $89 −$74 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 71°F or below on April 19? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -104%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +396%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 3? Jun 12 $84 −$68 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 19? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 22? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 23? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 19? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 26? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 3? Jun 12 $22 −$13 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,062
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $18 3m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $31 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 6m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 9m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 46m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 47m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -22.7% -30.1% 18% 17% -37.6%
≤30d 595 -8.9% -17.6% 28% 25% -14.8%
≤90d 655 -8.1% -16.9% 29% 26% -15.0%
all 655 -8.1% -16.9% 29% 26% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover99.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 26% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 22% -23.1%
15% -32.1% 19% -30.5%
20% -38.7% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.33 · official $238.26 (match) · 3500 history records